If Oscar history has taught us anything, it’s that the Academy doesn’t always reward the best— it rewards the moment. Last year’s debacle—when Anora, a film that looked like it was shot on an iPhone and edited on the free version of Premiere, somehow swept the Oscars—is the perfect example of how far the Academy’s choices can drift from genuine cinematic craft. I was so irritated by that mess I nearly swore off the Oscars altogether. Which is why this year’s Oscar nominated films feel like a welcome course correction. Films like Sinners, Frankenstein, and One Battle To Another remind us what the category is supposed to celebrate: bold visual storytelling and rich composition with imagery and characters that linger in the mind long after the credits roll. The real test of the Oscars isn’t who wins on tonight—it’s which films and performances we’re still talking about years later.

Most years there’s the performance critics can’t stop talking about, the film that reshaped the conversation, and then the safe pick that quietly sweeps the ballots. The 2026 Oscars are shaping up to follow that familiar script. So before the statues are handed out, TGATP is separating the race into two categories: the artists who should walk away with gold—and the ones who almost certainly will.

Best Picture

• Bugonia

• F1

• Frankenstein

• Hamnet

• Marty Supreme

• One Battle After Another

• The Secret Agent

• Sentimental Value

• Sinners

• Train Dreams

Should Win: Sinners
Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending epic has dominated nominations and critical conversation. Its scale, ambition, and cultural impact make it the most significant film of the year.

Will Win: One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping historical drama has strong industry support and the type of prestige storytelling the Academy often favors.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme

• Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another

• Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon

• Michael B. Jordan — Sinners

• Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

Should Win: Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
A career-best performance with emotional range and star power that required him to play not one, but TWO distinct characters, Michael SHOULD be the winner here.

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
A transformative role and the type of performance the Academy loves, Timothy will win if the votes were already in before his idiotic statements on the ballet and the Opera!

Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley — Hamnet

• Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

• Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue

• Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value

• Emma Stone — Bugonia

Should Win: Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
Delivering a powerful dramatic performance that anchored the film’s emotional weight, Jessie is one of the finest actresses of our generation.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
She has swept all of the other awards in this category, so it would be odd for her not to win this. But there last year’s Anoura debacle, so who knows.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Benicio Del Toro — One Battle After Another

• Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein

• Delroy Lindo — Sinners

• Sean Penn — One Battle After Another

• Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value

Should Win: Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
Penn’s “Lockjaw” will go down in cinematic history and and he delivered a  commanding performance that elevated every scene.

Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
The other performances were so riveting that the votes may be split to the point that Stellan delivers an upset.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value

• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value

• Amy Madigan — Weapons

• Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners

• Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
  

Should Win: Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
Black women playing powerful, multi-dimensional characters are never rewarded by Hollywood. We always have to be either magical negroes or fetishized sexually, which is why I was not a fan of Teyana’s character in “One Battle to Another.”

Will Win: Amy Madigan — Weapons
Amy is well-loved in La La Land and was amazing in “Weapons”, so I think this will go to her.

Best Director

• Chloé Zhao — Hamnet

• Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme

• Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another

• Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value

• Ryan Coogler — Sinners
  

Should Win: Ryan Coogler — Sinners
A visually bold film that blends genre filmmaking with historical scope and important allegories, Siinners SHOULD win Best Picture and Best Director. BUT again, is Hollywood ready for another Black director to win the gold boy?? I am not so sure.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
After years of nominations without a win, many expect the Academy to finally reward him.

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution — dir. Andrew Jarecki & Charlotte Kaufman

• Come See Me in the Good Light — dir. Ryan White

• Cutting Through Rocks — dir. Sara Khaki & Mohammadreza Eyni

• Mr. Nobody Against Putin — dir. David Borenstein & Pavel Talankin

• The Perfect Neighbor — dir. Geeta Gandbhir
  

Should Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Geeta Gandbhir’s The Perfect Neighbor stands out for its chilling immediacy and heartbreaking story. Built largely from police body-cam and surveillance footage, the film reconstructs a fatal neighborhood dispute with a level of intimacy that is both unsettling and deeply revealing. Rather than relying on narration or editorializing, Gandbhir lets the raw footage speak for itself, exposing how everyday tensions can escalate into tragedy and raising urgent questions about justice, race, and accountability. It’s the kind of documentary that lingers long after the credits roll—precisely the kind of fearless, conversation-shaping filmmaking the Academy should recognize.

Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The film’s urgent look at propaganda and indoctrination inside Russia has made it one of the most talked-about documentaries of the year. Given the Academy’s history of rewarding politically immediate films about global conflict, it currently appears to have the strongest momentum.

Best Cinematography 

• Dan Laustsen — Frankenstein

• Darius Khondji — Marty Supreme

• Michael Bauman — One Battle After Another

• Autumn Durald Arkapaw — Sinners

• Adolpho Veloso — Train Dreams
  

This was one of the hardest categories this year because so many of the nominated films are visually stunning. Dan’s work on Frankenstein truly took my breath away on IMAX. Unfortunately, the film may not be getting its full due because its impact depends so heavily on the big-screen experience—something that simply can’t be replicated on a television. Seen in a theater, however, its cinematography is nothing short of mesmerizing.

And Autumn’s work on Sinners was also so lush and breathtakingl. Best Cinematography remains one of the Academy’s last glass ceilings: in almost a century of Oscars, every winner has been a man. If Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins, she would become the first woman ever to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography, breaking one of the Academy’s longest-standing barriers. This is one of the awards I am most hoping goes the right way.

Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw — Sinners
Arkapaw’s work combines sweeping scale with meticulous lighting and composition, giving the film a visual language that critics say elevates every scene. Many observers consider it the most visually distinctive cinematography of the year.

Should Win: (2nd choice) Dan Laustsen — Frankenstein
Dan Laustsen’s cinematography in Frankenstein resurrects the visual language of classic Gothic horror while giving it a modern, cinematic scale. Through dramatic shadows, candlelit interiors, and sweeping, atmospheric compositions, Laustsen crafts a world that feels both hauntingly timeless and visually sumptuous. Every frame reinforces the film’s themes of isolation, creation, and dread, recalling the grandeur of classic monster films while elevating the story with striking contemporary craftsmanship. It’s the kind of bold, stylized cinematography that reminds audiences how much visual storytelling can shape the emotional power of a film.

Will Win: Michael Bauman — One Battle After Another
Bauman’s lush period cinematography has been widely recognized during awards season, and the film’s overall strength across categories suggests strong Academy support. With major precursor wins and industry momentum, he currently appears to be the frontrunner.